||Modeling Travel Time Reliability for Non-Interstate National Highway System Routes
Travel time reliability measures are increasingly used in system planning and performance measurement processes at the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) and the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI), so predicting travel time reliability measures and setting realistic performance targets have become critical. VDOT and the OIPI have conducted several studies on travel time reliability of interstate highways, but the reliability on non-interstate highways is not well studied. A data-driven target setting process based on current and future conditions would help not only generate realistic targets, but also track progress over time. This project aims to analyze travel time reliability on non-interstate National Highway System (NHS) arterials by (1) understanding factors that affect travel time reliability performance and the level of their impacts, (2) developing methods to estimate travel time reliability at a planning level, and (3) evaluating impacts of improvement projects on travel time reliability. Arterial-specific roadway attributes, such as traffic signals, will be the focus of the exploration. Results of this study will help VDOT and OIPI to better understand arterial travel time reliability measure and the underlying influencing factors, which will be the foundation to improving arterial travel time reliability and achieving quantitative reliability-based decision making.