||Traffic Forecasting Guidebook: Case Study Validation
John S. Miller
The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) is responsible for forecasting project-level traffic volumes. These forecasts predict an hourly or daily traffic volume on a given, or not-yet-built, road section. They typically denote a period as short as two years away or as long as 20 years out.
VDOT’s Transportation Mobility Planning Division has commissioned the development of a “Traffic Forecasting Guidebook” that identifies about a dozen potential techniques to generate these forecasts. This project responds to a request from that division: apply these techniques to historical case studies – situations from the past where a forecast was needed – and identify strengths and weaknesses of applicable techniques.
For each technique, the study team will examine accuracy, in terms of comparing actual forecasts to predicted forecasts; data requirements; necessary assumptions; and time required to apply the technique. The expected product is a catalog of each technique’s strengths and weaknesses.