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Title: Primary and Secondary Incident Management: Predicting Durations in Real Time
Contact: Michael D. Fontaine
Associate Director for Safety, Operations, and Traffic Engineering
Project No.: 87648
Target Date: 04/12/2011
Abstract: This project will investigate the relationship between the duration of a primary traffic incident and the corresponding probability of a secondary incident and develop a model to predict, in real-time, the durationof an incident. Primary and secondary incidents are key contributors to travel-time uncertainty and traffic congestion in Virginia’s urban areas.  An important, but lightly researched, issue is how to predict and prevent secondary crashes associated with moderate and large incidents.  The scope of this project will include: defining what constitutes a secondary incident; evaluating the interdependence between the duration of a primary incident and the occurance of a secondary incident; estimating the additive delay associated with primary and secondary incident pairs; and developing techniques to dynamically predict the duration of a primary incident and the probability of a secondary incident to assist in managing the incident.    

     Asad Khattak
     Catherine C. McGhee