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Title: An Investigation of the Accuracy of the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Fraction as an Input to the Mobil Emission Model
Contact: Michael D. Fontaine
Associate Director for Safety, Operations, and Traffic Engineering
Project No.: 68646
Target Date: 03/01/2006
Abstract: The purpose of this project is ensure that VDOT is using the best data currently available as inputs into MOBILE6 with respect to VMT fractions. The current methods of estimating VMT fractions will be evaluated to determine the level of accuracy each method provides. Both methods will be compared to “ground truth” data so that sources of error may be identified and correction factors developed, if appropriate. The research will yield more accurate estimates of transportation system related emissions. More accurate inputs to MOBILE6 should provide VDOT with results that actually reflect real emission conditions on roadways. There are two types of incorrect emission estimations: overestimation and underestimation. If emissions are overestimated, transportation measures instituted to reduce them could unnecessarily reduce the level of service to the public. Economic development may also be negatively influenced as a result of a reduction in the construction of needed transportation projects. If emissions are underestimated, appropriate measures to reduce them would not be taken, which could result in low air quality in a region and possible federal penalties.

     Brian L. Smith